The 90th Oscar Nominations

Check the entire list here.

I'm going to talk about the categories I'm most familiar with, starting with a few bullet points -

• The Shape of Water steals the show with thirteen nominations, yet none of those really single out Doug Jones as The Asset. 
• The only accolades for Molly's Game and Logan (!!!) is Best Adapted Screenplay. I know many people of the Reddit persuasion was hoping the latter would get more attention, but I've not seen it so I can't attest to it's quality.
• Original Screenplay is 90% 'The directors wrote this movie,' with the only exception being The Big Sick.
• Beauty and The Beast production design? Really? AND COSTUMES? They fit the style of the movie but a lot of it looked very cheap. It's only nomination should have been the original song for Evermore.
• Christopher Plummer got nominated for All The Money in the World out of spite, let's not kid ourselves. I love it.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

NOMINEES

BLADE RUNNER 2049

John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2

Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner and Dan Sudick

KONG: SKULL ISLAND

Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza and Mike Meinardus

STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI

Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould

WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES

Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist

The only one I'm unfamiliar with is 2049, I know it exists I simply haven't seen it - but these are incredibly outstanding choices, actual quality of the four movies aside.

 Visual Effects aren't just CGI, they're practical things and how it all looks together, not necessarily the choice of why things look like they do, that's more production design, so I can see how something like Valerian (which I loved) did not make it in, let's be honest, that is a LOT of CGI, and it's very well done, but I'm pretty sure they didn't have Mo-cap or practical effects.

One thing I'm slightly disappointed in is that Skull Island got this over a cinematography nomination, because the cinematography was hands down the best thing about that movie.

MY PICK: A tie between Last Jedi and War.

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BEST ORIGINAL SONG

NOMINEES

MIGHTY RIVER

from Mudbound; Music and Lyric by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson

MYSTERY OF LOVE

from Call Me by Your Name; Music and Lyric by Sufjan Stevens

REMEMBER ME

from Coco; Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez

STAND UP FOR SOMETHING

from Marshall; Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Lonnie R. Lynn and Diane Warren

THIS IS ME

from The Greatest Showman; Music and Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

I had no idea Marshall had any type of vocal music. 

Mystery of Love sounds pretty nice, and Mighty River makes Mary J. Blige a TWO TIME OSCAR NOMINEE IN THE SAME YEAR. 

There are four versions of Remember Me, and the one that was nominated was the end credits version, as that's the longest one. I don't see any limitations on how short a song can be, most people agree it's probably two minutes at the least, and most of the ones played in the movie are well beneath that.

"This Is Me" has Oscar bait written all over it. It's not even the best song in The Greatest Showman. The only saving grace is the vocality by Keala Settle.

MY PICK: Remember Me

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ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

NOMINEES

THE BOSS BABY

Tom McGrath and Ramsey Naito

THE BREADWINNER

Nora Twomey and Anthony Leo

COCO

Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson

FERDINAND

Carlos Saldanha

LOVING VINCENT

Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman and Ivan Mactaggart

THE BOSS BABY???????

That, over Lego Batman? Over any of the anime movies that were eligible this year? Over Captain Underpants?

We all know who is winning but...what a time to be alive.

MY PICK: Coco. Honestly, anything but Boss Baby. 

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ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

SALLY HAWKINS

The Shape of Water

FRANCES MCDORMAND

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

MARGOT ROBBIE

I, Tonya

SAOIRSE RONAN

Lady Bird

MERYL STREEP

The Post

McDormand made it clear during her SAG win that she didn't give two fucks about winning this, so it's all about if The Academy listens. Streep is just an honorary placement. As far as I'm concerned, it's Hawkins' or Ronan's to lose.

MY PICK: Sally Hawkins

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

MARY J. BLIGE

Mudbound

ALLISON JANNEY

I, Tonya

LESLEY MANVILLE

Phantom Thread

LAURIE METCALF

Lady Bird

OCTAVIA SPENCER

The Shape of Water

It's Janney's to lose.  This is Spencer's third time I believe being nominated for a movie where she plays a suffering black woman in the 1960s (The Help, Hidden Figures, The Shape of Water).

I wholly enjoyed Metcalf in Lady Bird as a headstrong mother trying her best, thinking she would be somewhere different than where she is at this point in her life, and knowing her daughter probably thinks she's a failure.

MY PICK: Laurie Metcalf

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET

Call Me by Your Name

DANIEL DAY-LEWIS

Phantom Thread

DANIEL KALUUYA

Get Out

GARY OLDMAN

Darkest Hour

DENZEL WASHINGTON

Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I want everyone else to win but Oldman, but it's his to lose. It must suck for Denzel, losing to abusers two years in a row at the Oscars.

MY PICK: Daniel Kaluuya

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BEST PICTURE

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges and Marco Morabito, Producers

DARKEST HOUR

Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten and Douglas Urbanski, Producers

DUNKIRK

Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers

GET OUT

Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr. and Jordan Peele, Producers

LADY BIRD

Scott Rudin, Eli Bush and Evelyn O'Neill, Producers

PHANTOM THREAD

JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison and Daniel Lupi, Producers

THE POST

Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers

THE SHAPE OF WATER

Guillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale, Producers

THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers

So word on the circuit was that Phantom Thread and The Post had pretty bad distribution of their screeners, hence how they got minimal nominations for earlier award shows.

But someone's looking out for them. Not so much, Spielberg isn't nominated for Director. I don't see Post winning.

The big contenders this year in this category have been The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Which I have not seen yet but is said to be a bit outdated and tone-deaf, as it was written by a non-American about American police, so we shall see), the latter also not scoring a Director nomination, which might throw a wrench into it's streak.

The directorial debuts of both Peele and Gerwing, Get Out and Lady Bird, have their directors nominated. This elevates them both, but I can't see Get Out winning. Best Actress may be all Lady Bird walks home with.

This is Nolan's first Director nom for Dunkirk, can you believe it? Maybe this should have been the Director portion. I've heard said movie is great on a technical level but soulless and empty humanity-wise.

I'm really surprised Call Me By Your Name got this far. No director nom there, and none for Darkest Hour either.

Coupled with all that information, and looking at the past, I think The Shape of Water is walking home as Best Picture. I wasn't crazy about it, but I do think the idea of a monster movie winning Best Picture is a cool idea.

MY PICK: Get Out